Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Prices in a commodity based economy

In case you've been living under a rock for the last decade, China and India have been on an economic tear. With growth rates consistently near or above 10%, a middle class has begun to emerge. Because of the demand of Asian consumers and companies, global prices for agricultural products and prime materials such as steel, iron ore, and petroleum have reached record highs. Thankfully for Brazil, these goods are some of their main exports. Rising prices for these products have fed into impressive Brazilian economic growth. While the United States and Europe have been mired in recession, Brazil has experienced strong growth, significant poverty reduction, and highly favorable terms of trade (the relative prices of what a country exports compared to what it imports). This is all great news. For Brazil, at least. Unfortunately, its terrible news for me. The increased prices of Brazilian exports have led its currency, the Real, to rise significantly in value. The Real is at a 12 year high against the dollar and according to the Economist's Big Mac Index it is the most over-valued currency in the world. I get paid in dollars and spend in Reals. While thousands of Brazilians are in Florida on shopping sprees taking advantage of their strong currency, I'm here in Brazil where a Big Mac costs more than ten dollars. But how much can you really complain when you live next to the beach?

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